Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Red State/Blue State

Just a quick thought:

Does a Democrat winning a "red" state, or taking a "blue" state in the primary mean anything? I mean, doesn't a Democrat HAVE to win the primary in every state?


Blogger Team Smishook said...

i mostly agree with you. the fact that obama won the idaho democratic caucus does not mean that he (or clinton) has any realistic shot of taking that state in the general election. just as clinton winning the new jersey primary doesn't mean that obama wouldn't take that state in the general.

but...two points. first, people are turning out in record numbers in the democratic primaries, even in traditionally "red" states like VA and GA. these numbers are often boosted by independents (when they're allowed to vote in democratic primaries, of course), who are, generally, voting for obama. this is suggestive, but not by any means clear, that obama would be able to bring in independents, and boost turnout generally.

second is the issue of coattails. democratic officeholders in red states - like, say, governor kathleen sebelius in kansas - have tended to endorse obama (if they have endorsed at all). there is a general sense out there that obama at the top of the ticket will be beneficial for downticket races, especially in competitive districts and/or red states. my prediction is that this will eventually pull the superdelegates away from clinton and to obama - these are often people with their jobs on the line.

but enough of clinton v. obama. let's all make fun of john mccain:

February 14, 2008 at 7:37 AM  

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